Timor-Leste: Stability at What Cost?

This latest report from ICG about Timor-Leste is timely and offers a riveting analysis of what lies ahead for this oil-dependent country. Will it sink under the weight of its petrodollars or overcome the 'resource curse' and launch itself as the post-conflict poster-child it was once hailed as? ICG's assessment is quite grim:

The 2012 elections bore testament to greater political stability but placed power in the hands of a few. Gusmão’s party returned with a broader mandate and streamlined coalition; his former guerrilla army subordinate (and recent armed forces chief), Taur Matan Ruak, became president. Both mobilised the structures of the resistance to aid their elections, while business interests also played a large role in the parliamentary poll. Though he formed a 55-member cabinet, Gusmão has been reluctant to delegate political authority to potential successors, instead centralising power under himself and a few key ministers. All political parties face internal problems, and the question of who will succeed such a dominant figure remains. Ruak is one possibility – he has been a vocal government critic, providing some accountability not offered by a weak parliament. But there are few other obvious successors, and the transition could be messy. 

Overly centralised political power sharpens risks from the dual lack of effective oversight and of adequate institutional arrangements in the security sector. Gusmão, who reappointed himself joint security and defence minister, has used his personal authority to tamp down tensions among and between the various security forces rather than make long-term policy. The police are without clear leadership and hobbled by inadequate investigative skills and discipline problems. Proposals to establish a separate criminal investigation service to address the poor track record of prosecutions may only weaken the force as a whole. The military has become more professional, but as it doubles in size and deploys across the country, the reluctance to outline a clear division of labour between the security forces poses greater risks. That task will not be made easier by the anomaly that though the country faces almost no external threats, the army’s ambitions are expanding.

The ICG report also makes some important recommendations, many of which have been made by other organisations like La'o Hamutuk and Fundasaun Mahein. Read the executive summary of the ICG report and download the full report here.